Democracy in a country requires more than elections, but no country can be a democracy without holding genuine elections. However, the most fundamental principle defining credible elections is that they must reflect the free expression of the will of the people. Keeping this in view, any conscious citizen would argue that a number of elections to different layers of local government in Bangladesh, like the city corporations and municipalities, took place in recent times amid festivity and fanfare and were duly regarded as participatory and hence acceptable with the January 16 Narayangonj City Corporation elections being the latest.

During the recent elections to Narayanganj City Corporation (NCC) and a number of municipalities, voter turnout has been deemed satisfactory to the conscious section of the society as citizens were seemingly able to exercise their rights to franchise peacefully, which has been a sign of growing hope of exercising the citizens’ voting rights. Voters turned up in good numbers at polling centres to cast ballots amid a festive and peaceful atmosphere, with no reports of violence and clashes taking place in any part of the NCC, which is a pure rarity in comparison to any election with party symbols.

As for example, the NCC election was held this term consisting of 192 centres. Everyone has been expressing the view that the election was free, fair, participatory and hence credible. Even the competing candidates claimed the election was acceptable. Ruling party Awami League-nominated candidate Dr. Selina Hayat Ivy received 1,59,097 votes with ‘Boat symbol and secured the mayoral election for the third consecutive time. On the other hand, ‘Independent’ heavyweight candidate Adv. Taimur Alam Khandaker obtained 92,166 votes with ‘Elephant’ symbol. Other five candidates were Maulana Md Masum Billah (Hand-fan) with 23,987 votes, ABM Sirajul Mamun (Wall-clock) with 10,724 votes, Md Rashed Ferdous (Wristwatch) with 1,927 votes, MdKamrul Islam (Horse) with 1,305 votes, Md Jashim Uddin (Banyan tree) with 1,209 votes. The voter turnout was not below 50% despite the Election Day being a hectic working day (Sunday) in pandemic.

The NCC polls appeared as a remarkable illustration of a free and unprejudiced poll. Additionally, the responsibility of the Election Commission (EC) and the local administration for an unbiased poll also attracted the attention. Both Ivy and Taimur did not mention any considerable objections during weeks-long campaigning and poll irregularities on the day of voting. Hence, the EC termed the voting as “free and fair” like the previous two terms of elections. Individuals in that area believe that the lenient approach of the nominees, their faith in public and rigorous supervising of the management had created a fair voting ground in Narayanganj. The latest election process is considered peaceful and transparent, and it falls in line with Narayanganj’s legacy of non-violent polling previously in 2016 and 2011.

Dr. Selina Hayat Ivy is the first female mayor in Bangladesh from 2011 and she has not misused her power in affecting the results in any elections. She said to journalists, “I will continue working for people regardless of their political identities. I will try my best to fulfill the election pledges and talk to Taimur ‘uncle’ whether we can work on promises he made to voters.” According to political analysts, Dr. Ivy’s clean image, personal charisma, vigorous standing against local criminalization, uncertain role of the local politician Shamim Osman through the election movement and the well-organized implementation of a clearly planned out campaigning worked as the x factor for the elected Mayor.

For the first time in, 100 per cent polling stations in Narayanganj used the electronic voting machines (EVMs) for casting votes and no voter had left the centre without giving their precious polls. A significant number of women voters were noticed waiting to vote and there were four voters from the third gender community out of 517,361 total voters in the Narayanganj city corporation election. Three members of the local third gender community were seen casting their votes on election morning. Despite being the winter of biting Magh month, voters were seen assembling at the voting booths ahead of schedule. At the middle of the day, the line of voters became longer outside the centre. There’s a wind of change in typical polling centre scenario. Therefore, every rightful civilian could participate in casting vote and choosing their preferred candidate in future elections.

While talking of the ruling party Awami League’s local politics, there was a strong but non-dominant rivalry between Ivy and Shamim Osman. Every single citizen residing over there can very well feel the heat of dynasty and influence of Ivy and Shamim in Narayanganj politics. Though Ivy was declared as Awami League candidate, there was hardly any sort of support from Shamim and his supporters. It took a serious turn when Ivy put all the allegations against Shamim directly or indirectly In front of media citing Taimur as Shamim’s candidate. Even some electronic media were bullied by Ivy for their one-sided broadcasting. As Awami League Central Committee officially declared Ivy as their candidate at a press conference, the ice started melting between Ivy and Shamim. The latter declared ‘Boat’ will be the ultimate winner in Narayanganj and nothing can stand before it. He also said that he was there for ‘Boat’ and that candidate hardly matters in such case. In fact, this sort of dispute can always be there in a big political party like Awami League. But the fact of the matter is that they should take lessons from such cases and applicable strategies can be applied in ensuing elections.

However, Union Parishad (UP) polls last year saw 113 deaths logged in five phases. Consequently, the elections were largely ruined by boycotts, low voter turnout and allegations of fixing. Political observers and analysts often see an increasing concern over the next general elections scheduled for the end of December 2023 or early 2024. Regardless of such voting experience and background, Narayanganj polls appeared to be an exclusion and an illustration to follow. Strict security measures were put in place at every NCC voting centre to guarantee that voters vote in an organized and peaceful manner. Moreover, the Home Ministry had given five instructions to ensure fair and peaceful NCC elections. The mayoral candidates did not engage in the mudslinging during the electioneering. They refrained from using harsh words against each other by attacking one other’s character. Political analysts said both Ivy and Taimur had determined their victories, but were not frantic for it and they even maintained the environment during polling.

From the announcement of the election schedule, the NCC election had been at the centre of discussion in the country’s political arena, although the BNP boycotted it saying that free and fair election is not possible under the current EC and the incumbent government. BNP had taken a ‘tactical’ and unclear position during the polls. The party had initially approved Taimur’s decision to seek nomination during election despite announcing a boycott of all elections under current regime and the EC. Therefore, Taimur had to compete in the vote individually as he could not participate with the symbol of the “Sheaf of Paddy”. BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir had allowed him to work in NCC election as an independent candidate. EC official earlier on 30th December 2021 said that there would be no party ban on working in the NCC polls. However, Taimur had to compromise his adviser role and seat in district the committee after the election. Exactly what caused the change in decision from not participating in any elections to approving the BNP leader’s participation as independent candidate and thereafter removing him from the party camp, are set of ambiguous decisions taken by BNP.

Did Taimur go against the party decision and decided to run for mayor? Or, is removing Taimur from his party positions was just a show for BNP? Is it a new strategy the party is taking? The independent mayoral candidate was seen campaigning with the local BNP leaders and activists. Even the BNP leaders were seen working for him openly. The leaders of the party were acting as his election agents. Although Taimur had participated with the symbol of “Elephant”, the leaders and supporters were carrying the “Sheaf of Paddy” symbol throughout the candidates’s ‘independent nomination’. Hence, it won’t be exaggeration to note that Taimur’s presence in the field was nothing but the shadow of BNP’s campaign. Then, questions arise as to how come Taimur get terminated from his BNP positions? How could other leaders of BNP support him despite BNP’s claim of non-participatory stand in any election? Was it a stunt of BNP to remain in the city corporation election implicitly?

Furthermore, Taimur being the so-called ‘independent mayoral candidate’ in the NCC election claimed that 10 leaders, activists, and election agents from his end were arrested in the lead up to the election day. He said, “They have been arresting and harassing my party leaders only to obstruct my election”. He even wished his own arrest at the cost of releasing other activists in his camp. Replying to the claims, Narayanganj district Superintendent of Police Zayedul Alam said to a newspaper, “We’re busy doing the election duties now. I’m not sure what they’re complaining about. There were charges filed against those who had been arrested. They did not even seek bail.” This creates confusion about Taimur’s statement of showing care for his party members as bail for them were not even sought. According to the local leaders, some of the reasons behind the defeat of Taimur in the NCC polls was not being able to be a BNP-nominated candidate with the symbol of “Sheaf of Paddy”. However, he was seen receiving the full support from other BNP leaders, which was in notice too. Moreover, the local affluent community also believed that Timur could not win the confidence of voters and that is yet another key reason behind his failure.

Finally, Taimur blamed the EVM method for not being able to win the mayoral race and thus tried to defend his failure. All his accusations were targeted at the incidents of pre-election arrests and EVMs. Complaining due to losing is part of our electoral culture for many years now. Even if all the allegations of Taimur were to be true, still the latest NCC election would logically be an example of a good election. No fight, violence and vote rigging were seen to occur, and the citizens’ sincere choice of a mayoral candidate was honoured with Dr. Ivy coming out as the clear winner in the race.

Even upon her victory, Dr. Ivy had gone with sweets to Taimur’s residence as results got published. At that time, Ivy also sought blessings from her ‘uncle’ Taimur, who in turn had given his blessings by putting hand on the mayor-elect’s head. They fed each other sweets in front of the media. Thus everything went fair and transparent in the Narayanganj polls apart from some small confusions and allegations by Taimur and BNP as his apparent camp. Even if taken into account, the complaints are negligible as it did not affect any voter or the voting process. This election has, indeed, turned out to be a true example and a shining hope for the next elections.

Meanwhile, elections to Banshkhali in Chattogram, Noakhali Sadar in Noakhali, Jhikargachha in Jashore, Natore’s Bagatipara and Natore Municipality were also held on the same 16^th January. At the polls, 26 candidates contested for the posts of mayor while a total of over 200 candidates were in the fray for the posts of councilor and reserved councilor. Awami League nominated candidates won all but one of these five municipality elections. BNP-backed independent candidate won the Bagatipara municipality election while the Awami League-nominated candidates won in Natore, Jhikargachha, Banshkhali and Noakhali municipalities.

In these elections, Awami League-backed candidate and incumbent mayor Uma Chowdhury Joly won Natore municipality by defeating BNP-backed independent candidate Sheikh Emdadul Haque Mamun. BNP-backed independent candidate AKM Shariful Islam Lelin won the Bagatipara municipality polls defeating Awami League’s rebel candidate Mamunur Sultan. Awami League candidate Mostafa Anwar Pasha Jamal was re-elected as the Jhikargachha municipality mayor. He defeated BNP-backed independent candidate and joint convener of Upazila BNP Advocate Imran Hasan Samad Nipun. Awami League’s Tofail Bin Hossain won Banshkhali municipality polls by defeating BNP-backed independent candidate and former mayor Kamrul Islam Hossaini. In Noakhali municipality, the Noakhali district Awami League’s joint convener Shahid Ullah Khan Sohel was re-elected.

Earlier in Sylhet city polls, BNP candidate Ariful Haque Choudhury came out as winner four years back by defeating heavyweight Awami League candidate Badar Uddin Ahmed Kamran. Back in 2017, Jatiya Party’s mayoral candidate Mostafizar Rahman Mostafa won the Rangpur City Corporation election defeating the Awami League and BNP contestants by a big margin. In the same year, BNP candidate Monirul Haque Sakku retained his office in Cumilla City Corporation polls by defeating Awami League-backed Anjum Sultana Sima. These were all examples of acceptable and participatory polls.

As we know, the essence of democracy is equality with the elections giving the opportunity to every adult citizen of the country to choose his/her representative. In case of democratic governance, elections make a fundamental contribution. In view of these notions, the Narayanganj city elections, with the some other city and municipality polls as stated above, present before us an encouraging scene in terms of voter participations and voting enthusiasm. It is thus well-proven that fair and credible election isn’t a mythical proponent – rather it’s a reality even in the year of 2022. However, Bangladesh can bank on hope for even a greater voter turnout in the elections to come subject to strong commitment in this regard by ruling and opposing camps alike. Improving voter participation requires broader actions by election stakeholders, such as the EC, the government agencies, the political parties as well as the civil society members. As for now, we can sign off saying that the recent Narayanganj and municipality polls will spur hope for and confidence in a further free, fair and participatory polls in the years to come.

rance, the country with centuries of heritage, history, culture, cuisine and fine art is Europe’s oldest and largest nation; as well as a prime tourist destination. The country located in western Europe is the fourth richest country in the world.

France’s politics are conducted within the framework of a quasi-presidential structure established under the Constitution de la Ve République (Constitution of the Fifth Republic) of France. The country refers to itself as a “integral, liberal, democratic, and communal parliamentary administration”. The constitution establishes the separation of powers and declares France’s ‘commitment to the Rights of Man and the foundations of national sovereignty as stated in the Declaration of 1789’. France is a unified country. In 2020, the Economist Intelligence Unit dubbed France a ‘flawed democracy’. The French presidential election of 2022 took place between April 10th and 24th in 2022. Because no candidate received a majority in the first round, a runoff election was held, in which Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen and was re-elected as President of France. Macron, who won the 2017 presidential election and whose first term runs through May 13, 2022, announced his intention to compete for re-election on March 3, 2022. After overcoming Le Pen, the leader of the National Rally, in the first round, he faced her again in the second round. The story behind this victory opens up some crucial factors that need to be more analyzed.

CANDIDATES’ FOR THE 2022 FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

The names of the 12 candidates who acquired 500 legitimate sponsorships were announced by the Constitutional Council on March 7, 2022, with the order selected by a lottery.

CAMPAIGNING STRATEGY

First-round

Following the 2017 presidential election, the Republicans (LR) sent a questionnaire to its members on the topic of the party’s “re-foundation,” and Macron has undertaken a diplomatic strategy game, announcing his candidacy on March 3 in a “Letter to the French” and having fewer than 40 days to retain the French voters on his wing. Because of the Ukraine issue, Putin has refused to participate in campaigns, despite the fact that he needs more citizens’ support to succeed.

Macron told the broadcaster that “no one would understand at a moment when there’s war” if he was out electioneering “when decisions have to be made for our countrymen”. “I wish I could get to grips, start fighting, make contact with electors”. However, the president’s majority party was having trouble running campaigns into the same fundamentals.” During his brief candidacy, Macron has assumed a variety of roles in combating his dissenters on a national level: French President, President of EU, commander-in-chief of the army in battle, and electoral contender.

Second-round

Emmanuel Macron’s second-round campaign strategy is a far cry from his first-round campaign strategy, which pitted him against far-right rival Marine Le Pen. Macron went to comparable rough terrain to talk to enraged voters in order to get more votes. Macron is eager to be palpable “near to the people” after remaining distant for months while his competitors campaigned for the first round. Around 100 cultural leaders signed an opinion piece urging supporters to vote for Macron in the second round on April 24, stating that voting for Le Pen will only aid her cause.

Macron had to persuade supporters to vote for him again despite a mixed record on internal issues, including as his handling of the yellow vest riots and the Covid-19 outbreak. Macron spoke to his supporters, saying that the dissatisfaction of those who voted for Le Pen and those who abstained must be addressed. “I am no longer a candidate for a camp, but the president of all,” he declared, assuring that “none would be forgotten.”

Victory Analysis

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, Mr. Macron’s popularity skyrocketed as he attempted to engage diplomatically with both Kyiv and Moscow in the hopes of achieving peace. Mr. Macron said his far-right nationalist opponent relied on “fears and resentment” just days before the election, admitting that she was relying on his shortcomings in her campaign to succeed him. “She has managed to draw on some of the things we didn’t manage to do, on some of the things I didn’t manage to do to pacify some of the anger, respond quickly to what voters want, and in particular show herself as offering security to the middle and working classes in France,” the incumbent president said.

Mr. Macron declined to debate his opponents before the first round of this election, and he has barely campaigned himself. On the evening of April 20, however, Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen staged a discussion. Mr. Macron’s policies include lowering unemployment, which is presently at 7.4%, limiting access to some unemployment benefits, and raising the retirement age to 65, which has historically been difficult in France to achieve.

Social Networking Platforms Influence French Presidential Election Campaigns

The French presidential campaign is taking place on social media more than ever before. YouTube documentaries, Twitch live-streamed meetings, a few Instagram dancing moves, or a Tiktok bowling strike that has been viewed over 6 million times. These are perfect locations for swaying voters at a cheap cost

and with no time constraints. Emmanuel Macron, Eric Zemmour, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is leading the race thanks to a social media campaign, are the three contenders who stand out. Le Pen, on the other hand, was less concerned with the social media campaign approach. Strict media laws for posting campaign advertising remained in place, with fines for parties that allow un- lawful posters or video clips, and all presidential candidates were given equal space. It was difficult to use social media to promote more time campaigns.

 

It appears that the technique is working. Since January, the proportion of individuals who regard Le Pen as a threat has declined two points to 51%. While 50% of those polled stated they would “under no circumstances” vote for her, Zemmour (64%) and Mélenchon (64%) had greater numbers (53%). The onset of war in Ukraine, which upended a lackluster campaign and gave Macron a wartime lift in the polls, could easily have undermined Le Pen’s efforts to seem “presidential.” “Le Pen was

quick to blame Putin for the war, then quickly shifted the conversation to the war’s impact on people’s purchasing power, which has been her mantra since the be- ginning of the campaign,” said one observer. While con- demning Putin’s actions, the far-right leader slammed Western sanctions against Russia, citing their impact on French households already struggling with rising en- ergy costs. She has threatened to punish huge energy companies who profit “fatly” from the crisis, a position that is popular among her working-class supporters. Si- multaneously, she has reinforced her ideological creden- tials by threatening to reduce benefits to French citi- zens. Le Pen’s decision to avoid large rallies in favor of small-scale gatherings in towns and villages – both a tactical choice and a result of her party’s dire financial straits – has played into her hands, validating her deci- sion to shun large rallies in favor of small-scale gather- ings in towns and villages.

While her opponents fought on television and Macron focused on the world scene, the National Rally leader spent much of her time mixing with crowds in depressed neighborhoods, demonstrating her capacity to connect with everyday people. She has positioned herself as a “candidate of tangible answers,” laying out how she in-

tends to lower the cost of gasoline, gasoline, wheat, and other necessities. Her image is more focused than Ma- cron’s in the first round due to simultaneous rallies.

Second round

Marine Le Pen, the far-right contender, enters the sec- ond round of the presidential election against President Emmanuel Macron with a new billboard at the center of her campaign, emblazoned with the words “For all French people.” This is the most recent phase in her me- dia effort to “de-demonize” her political party. In post- ers, she presents herself as a normal person in an at- tempt to establish political credibility, which draws a telling parallel with her poster for her first meeting with Macron. Her team used slogans to transmit numerous messages in order to increase campaign interest.

“The society that Marine Le Pen wants is one of national preference, discrimination, xenophobia disguised as constitutional principles, a rejection of any form of vari- ety and hospitality,” culture and sports industry leaders said. As a result, her performance tends to deteriorate over time. Although Le Pen recognized the loss to Ma- cron in the runoff, she was quick to characterize the re- sult as “a success” for her party.

1. PENSIONS ARE A MAJOR SOURCE OF CONTENTION

The two finalists have certain economic viewpoints in common. Ms. Le Pen, on the other hand, differs from Mr. Macron on a few grounds. She proposed, for exam- ple, repealing the real estate wealth tax and replacing it with a new financial wealth tax. She recommended a 5.5 percent VAT reduction on energy. Mr. Macron proposed to triple a special purchasing power bonus that is tax- free and exempt from social security contributions, in- cluding welfare benefits (RSA, France’s employment benefit payment) and unemployment insurance.

Most notably, Ms. Le Pen was pushing for a legal mini- mum retirement age of 60 (for those who worked before the age of 20 and for at least 40 years), but Mr. Macron wanted to raise it from 62 to 65, which would undoubt- edly be a key point of contention between the two vot- ing rounds.

2. NUCLEAR POWER AGREEMENTS, WHY NOT RENEWABLE ENERGY AGREEMENTS

With the development of six new-generation power plants, Mr. Macron is arguing for the rebirth of the French nuclear sector. He also supports the develop- ment of solar and wind energy, as well as hydrogen (50 offshore wind farms by 2050). At the same time, he wants to impose a carbon tax at Europe’s borders and provide low-cost electric car rentals. Ms. Le Pen is a sup- porter of nuclear power as well. Several independent or- ganizations have criticized both candidates for flaws in their environmental proposals. “The legitimacy of Ms. Le Pen’s suggested plan” on the environmental transi- tion, according to The Shift Project. Mr. Macron, on the other hand, responded too late for them to examine his program. In their study of the two candidates’ environ- mental proposals, the Climate Action Network cast doubt on their pledges.

3. PERMANENT DISCUSSION VS. REFEREN- DUM POLICY

Ms. Le Pen’s planned institutional reforms are a perma- nent aspect of her Ras emblement National (RN) par- ty’s electoral platform. The use of referendums to allow the people decide on particular matters, whether the referendum is initiated by the government or citizens, is at the top of the list. The far-right candidate also want- ed to revert to a non-renewable seven-year presidential term and introduce proportional representation.

Mr. Macron, on the other hand, is not a big fan of ref- erendums and has avoided them throughout his five- year presidency. However, since the Yellow Vests crisis, he has been persuaded to the value of public debate. During his campaign, the outgoing president declared frequently that he wants more citizen participation in political decision-making, including a “permanent” great national debate on key issues.

4. A CLEAR DIVERGENCE IN EUROPE

Mr. Macron has positioned himself as an outspoken pro-European contender in 2022. He intends to ensure Europe’s energy independence, as well as increase the skills and coordination of European militaries. Ms. Le Pen no longer calls for the EU to be dismantled or the euro to be abandoned. Officially, she demands that these treaties be renegotiated. However, she main- tains that she wants to make French laws superior to European rules, even if it means France being kicked out of the EU.

5. FOREIGN POLICY IS ANOTHER CONTENTIOUS SUBJECT

Both Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen stated that France would not become a co-belligerent in the conflict. How- ever, while the current president has been a leading force for the implementation of sanctions against Rus- sia, the RN leader believes that these penalties are threatening French purchasing power. Ms. Le Pen, whose party owes a Russian creditor money, goes even farther in her manifesto, suggesting an “alliance with Russia on key fundamental matters” like European se- curity. Both second-round contenders are aware that the Kremlin does not want Ukraine to join NATO. But, unlike the incumbent president, Ms. Le Pen is calling for France to leave NATO’s integrated military command system once the war in Ukraine is finished, citing inde- pendence and military sovereignty as reasons. The pres- idential candidates also disagree on free trade agree- ments.

6. ON IMMIGRATION, MARINE LE PEN WAS FAR MORE EXTREME

When it comes to limiting the right to asylum, Mr. Ma- cron and Ms. Le Pen are on the same page. Similarly, both candidates support restricting access to French na- tionality, though to varying degrees.

Mr. Macron wants to condition it on mastery of the French language, but his opponent wants to abolish birthright citizenship and easy nationality gain through marriage. She also plans to alter the Constitution to add scenarios that could result in nationality being revoked.

7. ON SOCIETAL CONCERNS, THE DISPARITY IS LESS PRONOUNCED

Mr. Macron wants to raise teachers’ compensation in ex- change for new responsibilities, whereas Ms. Le Pen wants to give them a 3% annual raise and limit the number of students per class to 20 in primary school and 30 in high school. Mr. Macron plans to reinstate mathematics into the main high school curriculum, re- structure vocational certifications, and boost appren- ticeships in the field of education.

During Mr. Macron’s five-year presidency, he made med- ically assisted reproduction available to all women, over Ms. Le Pen’s opposition. Although the RN candidate no longer favors repealing marriage for same-sex couples, as he did in 2017, the introduction of the citizen-initiat- ed referendum could reignite some of these concerns. Mr. Macron, who has declared gender equality his “top goal for the next five years,” intends to incorporate a

professional equality index, with financial penalties for unequal businesses. Ms. Le Pen, who just recently reaf- firmed her support for the 2000 equality law after years of opposition, did not campaign on these themes.

Candidates have made their opposition to radical Islam a point of emphasis. Mr. Macron plans to combat “sepa- ratism” by rigorously regulating foreign religious money. The RN’s president goes even farther, calling for a ban on wearing the veil in public and in university settings. During the campaign, this caused a stir among Muslims.

In the second and final round of voting, the centrist Ma- cron of the La République En Marche party is expected to gain roughly 59 percent, with Marine Le Pen of the nationalist and far-right National Rally party on 41 per- cent. She declared her outcome a “success” for her po- litical movement following the exit polls. “The French expressed a desire for a strong counterweight to Emma- nuel Macron this evening, for an opposition that would continue to defend and protect them,” she said.

Macron has maintained a considerable advantage over his closest challengers and has played a political long game in order to win re-election. When the news was announced, Macron’s supporters gathered on the Champs de Mars in central Paris, in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower, erupted in applause. The party was much more low-key than it had been after Macron’s triumph in 2017, though he did walk to deliver his address to the European hymn, also known as the “Ode to Joy.” Macron promised to be “president for every one of you” in his victory address. He then thanked his supporters, ac- knowledging that many of them voted for him solely to keep the extreme right out, as they did in 2017. Macron

stated that his second term will not be a repeat of his first, and he pledged to solve all of France’s current is- sues. He also spoke directly to Le Pen supporters, stat- ing that as president, he must find a solution to “the rage and conflicts” that drove them to vote for the far- right.

It will be my responsibility and that of those who surround me

– Macron

BNP’s best bet for coming to power through normal constitutional and elective process, some day, would be through copying and practicing of the Westminster-type model of the shadow government. BNP can prepare a new breed of leaders, who would evoke faith and trust in them among the people. The new leaders can be drawn from among persons with required capacity, specialist knowledge and due experience whom the people can trust to lead them and pose as a viable alternative to the ruling Awami League, write SHEIKH MOHAMMAD FAUZUL MUBIN, ENAYET RASUL BHUIYAN and NASHIR UDDIN

In Bangladesh, political divide turns far and wide unlike other democracies depending on issues, inter-ests and relevance wherein leadership plays a key role. In fact, our political system is structured such a way that it’s not essential to present policies, actions and readiness, to present a prepared and worka-ble alternative to people in the event of a major failure of the incumbents to govern effectively. It be-comes too vital that the main opposition can be trusted to take over the tasks of governing efficiently and effectively.

CAN KHALEDA ZIA CLING ON?

A healthy and physically vigorous Khaleda Zia cannot be expected magically to be reborn to revitalise and freshly inspire the party and its followers. In other developed countries and democracies around the globe, not so much about leadership qualities or issues and other aspects to providing effective governance are issues to worry about. The triumphant party in the election, on winning, may be found ready to provide dependable and effective governance right after the election results get announced.

Modelled after the British parliamentary tradition, the shadow government and other attributes to ensure viable and effective continuity both in political and governmental terms, there are hardly scopes in such systems for new governments to fast buckle down and show pathetic inabilities in the matter of governance.

The members of the shadow government had been closely following issues of national importance from long before the general elections and are well versed on how and what to do from their own to do better or at least not to slip into a pitfall of misgovernance or ineffective governance.

But closer to home in Asia, including our own Bangladesh, do we see the advance preparation of op-position parties to assure the people about a measure of dependability to go on governing efficiently notwithstanding the rise and fall of governments arising from election outcomes? In most of Asia, in-cluding Bangladesh and India, we see family, cult, personality, and charisma etc. playing greater roles than preparation of parties in advance to automatically provide effective leadership.

OTHER OPTIONS AND BNP’S STATE OF AFFAIRS

Gazing at the crystal ball, it is not difficult to forecast what lies ahead for opposition politics of BNP as the next general election date gets nearer. This party is unlikely to re-examine or reform itself quickly centring on the ups and downs of Begum Zia’s health. Even if she recovers, which her party men and most others in the country wish her, she is unlikely to be fully fit despite her current health conditions. But there would be unlikely pressures from within the party asking her to step down or to limit her active role in the party affairs. Embroiled in such a complicated situation, the BNP is unlikely to get the strength of a party with new and vigorous leadership.

Tarique returning home from London and taking the mantle of leadership from her mother would be a perfect solution. But this is most unlikely as he faces warrants of arrest in several cases on return. In that situation, BNP would be like sailing without radar on very rough seas come the election and its humiliation in it would be somewhat predestined.

Before Begum Zia’s recent heart attack, it was heard that Begum Zia was thinking about giving up much of her powers and functions to the now-deceased Barrister Moudud Ahmed. Surely, this would be also an ideal choice to be liked especially by the intelligentsia and veteran party workers. They could expect to broadly unify the party’s various factions and rally it round the illustrious Barrister, who had all in his background to put BNP formidably as a serious challenger to the Awami League in a probable post-Khaleda era. But the death of Moudud Ahmed must have also crushed such hopes.

As for the other senior leaders in BNP, none met his pedigree or abilities. The present Secretary Gen-eral of the party Miza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and some other ex-ministers of the BNP era are generally in frail health conditions too. In sum, the BNP faces a leadership vacuum which it would find hard to fill in the months ahead. The ongoing city corporation elections are also injecting new uncertainties in BNP’s posturing. The leaders of BNP will have to fast decide whether they should stick too rigidly to their decision of boy-cotting the general election or take a chance on seeing the present Election Commission (EC) more fairly tilted towards allowing the holding of free and fair elections. In that situation, come December 2023, the BNP might face ‘hard choices or temptation’ to join the election fray. Such a development, of course, will change everything.

The country would be plunged into election politics for a while and the BNP leaders would need all their acumen and skills to make an impressive showing in the election regardless of whether they can show enough strengths to unseat the incumbent Awami League from power or not.

EXPECTATION FROM BNP

Let’s discuss as to what people do really expect from the BNP? A broader view in this regard is that this party needs to rehabilitate itself in the eyes of the people. It presently has an image among people in general for its continuous fiery actions in 2014-15 and 2017-18 to desperately try and unseat the government.

Normal life and living was negatively affected in that period, but the BNP could not achieve its target. Nor does it seem that the people have any more appetite this time to support such aggressive politics from BNP to be able to achieve its goal. People would generally want BNP to pursue its goal in a different way. They would want BNP not to once again paralyse the country on the plea of movement, but to present its case peacefully to the people. That way has more chances of gradually winning over more mass support for the BNP in the long run.

Without being seen as a party of violence and unrest and depending essentially on the tactics of un-rest to achieve its goal, the BNP would find greater sympathy and support for it in the people’s minds. BNP needs to aim for a complete rehabilitation in people’s minds and awareness. In 2018 when BNP had launched its ‘all-out movement’ against the government, it is not that people generally hated this course of action.

BNP also could sell it off as a desperate move on its part, backed by people’s participation, in response to a government that had turned totalitarian and dictatorial and bent on alleged election rigging. But after some months, the fury that the BNP wanted to whip up in its favour appeared to lose its steam. People were for reviving normalcy and to that end spontaneously ignored BNP’s further call for hartals and other action programmes. Thus, the BNP movement in 2018 gradually petered out from lack of support.

Government was able to hold the general elections in 2018 with all its shortcomings, but the BNP, even after forming election alliance with ‘like-minded’ parties making veteran politician and noted jurist Dr Kamal Hossain their alliance leader, was unable to mount any serious challenge to the same as people were too weary and had no stamina for further movement. Now, BNP would be faced with a similar choice as the countdown for the next general election, ex-pected to be at the fag-end of 2023, is slowly starting. What should it do? Will it repeat the past poli-cies to court failures again or try newer and better strategies?

BNP leaders need to realise that two things are swallowing all vain prides. First, they need to admit in their minds that the ruling party is seen much differently in people’s conception these days. The finish-ing of the Pama Bridge project in time together with solid progress made towards completion of a number of nationally important mega projects have given a shine to the ruling party’s image. As a matter of fact, ranks and file of the people are not for any unstable conditions in the country now; they seek only stability and continuity.

REHABILITATING PARTY IN PEOPLE’S MINDS REMAINS KEY

In view of the current realities, it would be pragmatic for the BNP leadership not to emotionally or pas-sionately go for past policies and the failed ones. They should opt for rehabilitating the party in the minds of the people for the midterm and the long term. In that way, they may get sufficiently rehabili-tated in people’s conception and through turn of events people may once again choose them or accept them as a viable alternative to the present ruling party. Therefore, the BNP would be doing bet-ter building up its electorates for the midterm and long term rather than courting uncertain adven-tures in the short term and flopping again.

This preparation for looking like a viable alternative to the Awami League involves following the shadow government example. In the UK, for instance, the shadow governance essentially means always preparation by the political opposition so that people can be assured that they would not suffer from any governance gaps should the incumbents get defeated in elections or get unseated by any tumult. With this, in the UK, people can keep faith in the new government whether a Tory government wins or gets defeated in the polls or a Labour government wins and vice versa.

For example, all the ministries can count on the preparations taken by able persons in the shadow Cabinet to bring their knowledge and skills in the new administration. For example, the Ministry of Fi-nance would benefit from preparations taken well in advance by the shadow government’s counter-part, who has been keeping an eye on the lapses of his or her predecessor and meanwhile forming policies and strategies to utilise once called upon to do so.

Same would be the advance preparations in all other line ministries without any exception meaning, on the whole, a shadow government remains fine-tuned to take over efficiently from an exiting government or government going out.

The BNP’s best bet for coming to power through normal constitutional and elective process, some day, would be through copying and practicing of the Westminster-type model of the shadow government.

While this might not win BNP the next general election for the present overriding popularity of the incumbent government in Bangladesh, it can surely make a successful bid for power in the ‘future’ by showing that it is a responsible party that can wait for its turn legitimately and soberly. In the mean-time, following the much-acclaimed shadow government model, it can prepare a new breed of leaders, who would evoke faith and trust in them among the people.

The new leaders can be drawn from among persons with required capacity, specialist knowledge and due experience whom the people can trust to lead them and pose as a viable alternative to the ruling Awami League.

In fine, the BNP is a large mass-based political organisation. It has many talented leaders and activists. The present breed of BNP leaders, who are presently health-barred from clinging on to leadership po-sitions, should find out these talented breed of personalities and groom or encourage them to take over as the hard core of its future leadership.

BNP LEADERS WHO MAY SUCCEED KHALEDA ZIA

Tarique Rahman

Family Background

Tarique Rahman belongs to a Bengali Muslim family and his ancestral home is in the village of Bagbari at Gabtali in Bogra District. His father, Ziaur Rahman, was the 7th President of Bangladesh, and his mother, Begum Khaleda Zia, was the 10th Prime Minister and first female Prime Minister of Bangladesh.

Political Career Highlights
Tarique started his political career as a primary member of the Gabtali Upazila BNP 1988 in Bogura. He actively assembled support for the party during the national elections of 1991, when the transition was taking place from the autocratic ruling to the democratic government. He gradually became the Senior vice president and now he is performing as acting Chairperson of BNP.

Money laundering case

On 7 June 2007, a money laundering case was submitted against Tarique and his friend and business partner Giasuddin Al Mamun by the Bangladesh Anti Corruption Commission at a court in Dhaka. In a verdict given on 18 November 2013 by the court, he was acquitted in the case involving BDT 20.41 crore.

On 21 July 2016, Rahman was found guilty by the Bangladesh High Court overturning a lower court verdict that acquitted him earlier. He was sentenced to seven years of imprisonment and fined Tk 20 crore by the Court. His money laundering case was the first case in the country’s history where an FBI agent testified and produced evidence against a defendant in Bangladeshi court.

On 3 November 2008, a leaked US Embassy cable said that the embassy in Dhaka believed Tarique was “guilty of egregious political corruption that has had a serious adverse effect on US national interests’

2004 Dhaka Grenade Attack Case

On 10 October 2018, Tarique was sentenced to life in prison for the case of 21 August, 2004 grenade attack on the rally of Bangladesh Awami league in Dhaka.

Dr. Zubaida Rahman (50 years)

Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir (74 years)

Gayeshwar Chandra Roy (71 years)

Mirza Abbas (71 years)

Ruhul Kabir Rizvi (71 years)

Amanullah Aman (60 years)

Dr. Khandaker Mosharraf Hossain (76 years)

Rumin Farhana (40 years)

Ishraque Hossain (33 years)

PROBABLE CATALYSTS TO STRENGTHEN OPPOSITION ELECTION ALLIANCE

Dr Mohammad Yunus (81 years)

Dr Colonel (Retd) Oli Ahmed (83 years)

Dr Reza Kibria (61 years)

 

দেশের উন্নয়নের স্বার্থে অন্যান্য দেশের সাথে কূটনৈতিক সম্পর্ক প্রতিটি সচেতন নাগরিক জন্য একটি কাঙ্ক্ষিত বিষয়। গত ২২ ডিসেম্বর ভারত মহাসাগরে দ্বীপরাষ্ট্র মালদ্বীপের প্রেসিডেন্ট ইব্রাহিম মোহাম্মদ সোলিহের আমন্ত্রণে দেশটিতে ৬ দিনের সরকারি সফরে গিয়েছিলেন গণপ্রজাতন্ত্রী বাংলাদেশের মাননীয় প্রধানমন্ত্রী দেশনেত্রী শেখ হাসিনা। বিগত বাকি সফরের ন্যায় এই সফর নিয়ে উচ্ছ্বসিত দুই দেশের নাগরিক। কারণ আন্তর্জাতিক কূটনৈতিক সম্পর্কের নিরিখে প্রধানমন্ত্রী শেখ হাসিনার এই সফর বাংলাদেশ ও মালদ্বীপ দুই দেশের জন্যই বিশেষ গুরুত্ব বহন করে।

মালদ্বীপের জনসংখ্যা প্রায় সাড়ে ৫ লাখ। দেশটি তার মোট রপ্তানির মাত্র ১ দশমিক ৭ শতাংশ রপ্তানি করে বাংলাদেশে। দ্বিপাক্ষিক রপ্তানি তথা বাণিজ্য সম্পর্ক উন্নয়ন স্বার্থে, বাংলাদেশের প্রধান সমুদ্রবন্দর চট্টগ্রাম থেকে মালদ্বীপের  সমুদ্রবন্দর মালে পর্যন্ত সরাসরি জাহাজ চলাচলের বিষয়ে দুই দেশের মধ্যে যে আলোচনা হয়েছে তারই পরিপ্রেক্ষিতে বাংলাদেশ চাইছে প্রস্তাবিত রুটে যাত্রীর পাশাপাশি একই জাহাজে যেন পণ্য পরিবহনেরও সুযোগ থাকে। সরকারি-বেসরকারি সংস্থার প্রতিনিধিদের  মতে, চট্টগ্রাম থেকে মালদ্বীপ রুটে শুধু যাত্রীবাহী জাহাজ চলাচল কখনোই লাভজনক হবে না, একই জাহাজে যদি পণ্য পরিবহনের সুযোগ থাকে তবে দুই দেশের বাণিজ্য সম্প্রসারণেও এর সুফল পাওয়া যাবে।

২০১৯ সাল থেকে বাংলাদেশি অদক্ষ শ্রমিক নেওয়া বন্ধ রেখেছে মালদ্বীপ। সে কারণে নতুন করে সম্ভবনা সৃষ্টি হওয়া এই শ্রমবাজারে যেতে পারছে না কর্মীরা। বাধ্য হয়ে ভারত থেকে প্রবাসী নেওয়া হচ্ছে। আবার প্রায় ৫০ হাজার অবৈধ শ্রমিকের বৈধ কাগজ না থাকায় এবং তাদের কষ্টার্জিত অর্থ সরাসরি মালদ্বীপের মুদ্রায় দেশে পাঠাতে না পেরে  ভোগান্তি চরমে উঠেছে প্রবাসী বাংলাদেশীদের। বর্তমানে এই অবৈধ বাংলাদেশি শ্রমিকদের বৈধতা দেয়ার এবং করের ক্ষেত্রে ছাড় দেয়ার সম্মতি দিয়েছে মালদ্বীপ। এই খবরকে ঘিরে দীর্ঘদিনের জট পাকিয়ে থাকা সমস্যার সমাধানের আশায় বুক বেঁধেছেন দেশটিতে কাজ করা প্রায় ১ লাখ প্রবাসী বাংলাদেশি।

অপরদিকে মালদ্বীপের অর্থনীতি চাঙ্গা হতে শুরু করেছে মূলত গত এক দশক ধরে এবং ২০১২ সালে দেশটি মধ্যম আয়ের দেশে পরিণত হয়েছে। আর মধ্যম আয়ের দেশে পরিণত হবার পর সেখানে ব্যাপক অবকাঠামোগত নির্মাণ শুরু হয়েছে। কিন্তু মালদ্বীপের সাগর থেকে আহরিত বালু দিয়ে নির্মাণ কাজ বা মাটি ভরাটের কাজ করা যায়না বলে দেশটিকে পার্শ্ববর্তী ভারত থেকে পলিমাটি ও বালু আমদানি করতে হয়। বাংলাদেশের সিলেটসহ কয়েকটি এলাকার বালুর মান উন্নত বলে এগুলো নিয়ে মালদ্বীপের আগ্রহ আছে। এছাড়াও বাংলাদেশ থেকে চিকিৎসক ও অন্যান্য পেশাদার নেয়ার আগ্রহের কথা জানিয়েছে মালদ্বীপ।

এই দুই দেশের জনগণের চাওয়ার উপর ভিত্তি করে, সফরকালে দুটি সমঝোতা স্মারক (এমওইউ)সহ চারটি চুক্তি সই হওয়ার সম্ভাবনা নিয়েই যাত্রা শুরু হয় বঙ্গবন্ধু কন্যার। প্রস্তাবিত চারটি চুক্তি হল – আয়ের উপর কর আরোপের ক্ষেত্রে  দ্বিগুণ কর এড়ানো এবং রাজস্ব ফাঁকি প্রতিরোধের চুক্তি; বন্দীদের স্থানান্তরের চুক্তি; বাংলাদেশ ও মালদ্বীপের মধ্যে স্বাস্থ্যসেবা ও চিকিৎসা ক্ষেত্রে সমঝোতা স্মারক (নবায়ন) এবং যুব ও ক্রীড়া উন্নয়নের ক্ষেত্রে সহযোগিতার বিষয়ে বাংলাদেশ ও মালদ্বীপের মধ্যে সমঝোতা স্মারক।

মালদ্বীপের প্রেসিডেন্টের সঙ্গে একটি সফল দ্বিপাক্ষিক আলোচনা শেষে বাংলাদেশ ও মালদ্বীপের মধ্যে স্বাস্থ্য, শিক্ষা, দ্বৈত কর পরিহার, বন্দী বিনিময় এবং যুব ও ক্রীড়া ক্ষেত্রে তিনটি চুক্তি স্বাক্ষরিত হয়। ইতিমধ্যেই যে তিন চুক্তি সাক্ষরিত হয়েছে তাতে দুই দেশের মধ্যে শিক্ষা, স্বাস্থ্য, ক্রিয়া ক্ষেত্রে উন্নয়নের সাথে সাথে দীর্ঘদিন থেকে কর নিয়ে যে দ্বন্দ্ব ছিল তারও সমাধান হবে বলে আশা করা যাচ্ছে। সফরকালে বাংলাদেশ দক্ষিণ এশিয়ার দুই দেশের মধ্যে বন্ধুত্বের প্রতীক হিসেবে মালদ্বীপকে ১৩টি সামরিক যান উপহার দেয়।

বাংলাদেশ সব প্রতিবেশী দেশের সঙ্গে বন্ধুত্বপূর্ণ সম্পর্ক অব্যাহত রাখতে চায় এবং ঢাকা সবসময় দক্ষিণ এশিয়ার দেশগুলোর সঙ্গে তার সম্পর্ককে গুরুত্ব দেয়। বাংলাদেশ ও মালদ্বীপের মধ্যে সাম্প্রতিক এই সফরের পর বন্ধুত্ব ও সহযোগিতা বাড়ানোর মাধ্যমে অর্থনৈতিক, বাণিজ্যিক ও কুটনৈতিক সম্পর্ক আরও সামনের দিকে এগিয়ে যাক এই চাওয়াই রাখে সাধারণ জনগণ।

 

লেখকঃ শেখ মোহাম্মদ ফাউজুল মুবিন
সদস্য, কেন্দ্রীয় কমিটি
বাংলাদেশ আওয়ামী যুবলীগ